外文文献： 估计全球转基因生物的经济影响Estimating the Global Economic Effects of GMOs.pdfVIP

Estimating the Global Economic Effects of GMOs Kym Anderson Centre for International Economic Studies University of Adelaide Chantal Pohl Nielsen Danish Institute of Agricultural and Fisheries Economics and University of Copenhagen Sherman Robinson International Food Policy Research Institute Washington D.C. Karen Thierfelder U.S. Naval Academy Annapolis MD Revision of a paper presented at the IFPRI-sponsored pre-conference workshop of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Adelaide, 22 January 2001. Forthcoming in Agricultural Biotechnology: Markets and Policies in an International Setting, edited by P. Pardey, Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute, 2001. 2 ABSTRACT The new agricultural biotechnologies using transgenic or genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are attracting an exceptionally large degree of opposition. Both environmental and food safety concerns have been raised by opponents to the development of genetically modified (GM) crops. The vast majority of opponents want at least to have labels on products that may contain GMOs, while the most extreme of them (particularly in Western Europe) want to see GM crops totally excluded from production and consumption in their country. This extreme view contrasts with the more relaxed attitude towards the use of GMOs in pharmaceuticals, and swamps discussions of the positive attributes of the new technology. To illustrate the usefulness of quantitative models for informing the GMO debate, the present paper draws on recent studies by the authors that use empirical models of the global economy to examine what the effects of widespread