基于粮食安全的区域耕地资源保护研究——以甘肃省天水市为例-study on the protection of regional cultivated land resources based on food security - a case study of tianshui city in gansu province.docx

AbstractFood is closely related to peoples livelihood,social development and stability. Food security makes an important part in the national economic security system.Not only developed but also developing countries are very concerned about it,especially for our country with such a large population, food security problem is much more compelling.Cultivated land is the most fundamental material basis which people rely on for production and development and the indispensable means of production for human to obtain food as well as other agricultural products.It plays the fundamental function in sustainable development of agriculture and the national economy. Therefore,to maintain a certain amount and quality of cultivated land resources and the basic food supply is directly related to economic development,social stability and national security.This article takes the city of Tianshui in Gansu with backward economy and relatively low level of urbanization as an example.First,it analysis the present status of land utilization and food security of Tianshui;then followed by the use of minimum land area of law and the pressure index in order to evaluate the food security situation of Tianshui City objectively;finally it forecasts several indexes including the population, per capita grain consumption demand,total demand for food ,arable land sown area of grain crop production,multiple crop index,the ratio of grain sown area of the total sown area of Tianshui City by using a mathematical model.On the basis of the prediction results and with comprehensive consideration of food self-sufficiency rate,this article uses food security-based demand for food law to forecast the needs of cultivated land in the year of 2010 and 2020 in Tianshui City,meanwhile,it puts forward some countermeasures on farmland protection.The results show that:Between 1996 -2005, the total area of arable land in Tianshui City had been reduced by 41149 hm2,the average reduction is 4115hm2,per capita arable lan