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Disaster Planning灾害预案 How to Gather Plan Data, Write and Execute a Plan 如何收集预案资料,编写和执行预案 All Disasters are local所有的灾害都是地方性的 Planning Challenges编写预案所面临的挑战 Time-consuming 耗费时间的 Planners with limited knowledge, experience, and time 预案编写者知识、经验和时间的限制 Must address broad range of hazards and contingencies 必须能够适用于多种危险和意外 Must be easily-accessible and user-friendly 必须是易于获得的和便于操作的 Integration! 一体化! Poor planning, poor plans没有好的规划,就没有好的预案 The “Paper Plan” Syndrome: “纸上预案”综合症 “A written plan can be an illusion of preparedness if other elements are neglected” “如果忽略其它要素,认为编制完一个预案就代表已经做好准备工作,这只能是幻觉” Auf der Heide, Disaster response: Principles of Preparation and Coordination: 1989 Planning: Assumptions and Realities规划预案:假设和现实 Assumption 假 设 Reality 现 实 Need 需 求 Incident response needs are reliably identified through planning 预案肯定能事先考虑到应对事件的各种需求 Planning is often not done well* 预案往往做得不够好 Methodology that yields good planning data 用能产生良好预案编制资料的方法去编制预案 A written plan will be accessible to responders and managers during an incident 发生事件时,管理者和应急人员容易得到编制好的预案 Written plans are not accessible§ 编制好的预案不易得到 Accessible plans 易得的预案 Experienced responders and managers will know what to do even without a plan 即使手头没有预案,富有经验的管理者和应急人员都知道做什么 One person’s experience is not as good as many people’s experience* 集体智慧往往胜过个人经验 Integrate current situational awareness data with pre-considered response capabilities/strategies 将当前形势的感知信息与预先考虑的应急反应能力和策略相结合 Drabek, 1987:176, Auf der Heide, Disaster response: Principles of Preparation and Coordination: 1989, Quarantelli, 1983;71,89, 212, FEMA 1983d:8 § Worth, 1977:166, Arnett, 1983;61 Lack clear measures of performance 缺乏清晰的业绩考核 Cumbersome document 文件冗长 Don’t always address operational problems 往往不能表达执行层面的问题 Lack of integration 缺乏整合 Bulky and difficult to distribute 厚重而难以分发 Shortfalls of Existing Plans 现有预案的不足 Planning challenges编写预案所面临的挑战 Disaster planning can be complicated and overwhelming 灾害预案编制复杂
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