货币供应量作为中国货币政策中介目标的两条路径.doc

货币供应量作为中国货币政策中介目标的两条路径 //dx.doi.org/10.12677/fin.2012.21002 Published Online January 2012 (//.hanspub.org/journal/fin) Two Paths to the Intermediate Target of Monetary Policy Based on the Money Supply in China* Huqin Yan1, Zhenyu Liu2 1Xiamen National Accounting Institute, Xiamen 2Management School, Xiamen University, Xiamen Email: yhuqin@hotmail4, zhenyliu@xmu.edu Received: Nov. 7th, 2011; revised: Nov. 26th; 2011; accepted: Dec. 13th, 2011 Abstract: Should the money supply be used as an intermediate target of monetary policy in China? For an- swering this question, we have created two theoretical models as two paths to the target solutions. Path 1: when assuming that the velocity of money is a variable but not a constant (Yan Huqin, Liu Zhenyu, 2011)[1], by using the income quantity equation of money suggested by Friedman (1956)[2], we have created one model to get the expected growth rate of money supply. Path 2: by using the income quantity equation of money changes suggested by Yan Huqin and Liu Zhenyu (2011)[3], we have created the other model to get the ex- pected growth rate of money supply. Based on the Chinese data sample during 1994-2010 the empirical and sensitivity analysis has approved that even though through the two paths we can get the expected growth rate of money supply, the path 2 is more significant than the path 1. Keywords: Quantity Equation of Money; Quantity Equation of Money Changes; Acceleration Velocity of Money; Excess Money Growth Rate; Intermediate Target for Monetary Policy 货币供应量作为中国货币政策中介目标的两条路径* 阎虎勤 1，刘震宇 2 1厦门国家会计学院，厦门 2厦门大学管理学院，厦门 Email: yhuqin@hotmail, zhenyliu@xmu.edu 收稿日期：2011 年 11 月 7 日；修回日期：2011 年 11 月 26 日；录用日期：2011 年 12 月 13 日 摘 要：货币供应量是否适合被作为中国货币政策中介目标呢？为了回答这个问题，我们建立了两个 理论模型作为两条通向目标解决方案的路径。路径 1：在假定货币流通速度为变量而非固定的情况下(阎 虎勤、刘震宇，2011)[1]，通过应用 Friedman(1956)[2]提出的存量收入货币数量方程式，我们建立了一 个求解货币供应量增长率预期值的模型。路径 2：通过应用阎虎勤、刘震宇(2011)[3]提出的增量收入货 币数量方程式，我们建立了另外一个求解货币供应量预期值的模型。通过以中国 1994~2010 年的数据 为样本进行实证分析