策略焦点：在盈利、销售和股息高于预期情况下的投资选择 (英文版).pdfVIP

March 5, 2010 Europe: Portfolio Strategy: Strategy Matters March 5, 2010 Europe: Portfolio Strategy Strategy Matters Positioning for surprises in earnings, sales and dividends On a top-down basis, we forecast higher than consensus earnings growth in 2010 and 2011. We expect further positive earnings revisions and surprises to support equities. We note that earnings surprises are not rewarded as much if they are purely the result of margin improvements. Higher earnings should also lead to positive dividend surprises. Positive earnings revisions and surprises should support equities On a top-down basis, we forecast earnings will grow 38% in 2010 and 28% Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA +44(20)7774-1714 | christian.mueller- in 2011 versus consensus of 27% and 23%, respectively. As a result, we glissmann@ expect positive earnings revisions and surprises in 2010, which should Goldman Sachs International support equities. Peter Oppenheimer Earnings suprises can have different drivers (and performance) +44(20)7552-5782 | peter.oppenheimer@ Goldman Sachs International We find that earnings surprises are rewarded differently by the market depending on their drivers. Companies surprising on both sales and Gerald Moser earnings have performed best; however, companies that have surprised