【2013考研必备】经济学人2012 赏析合集.docVIP

China’s banks中国银行业Storing up trouble问题不断加深Healthy profits are misleading正常利润带有误导性attach://45488.mp3May 5th 2012 | HONG KONG | from the print editionBANKS in China appear to be in rude health. The seven biggest mainland banks have just posted a 16% year-on-year increase in pre-tax profits between them for the first quarter. The level of non-performing loans (NPLs) remains low, at just about 1%. But trouble is being stored up for the future.中国银行业看起来状态过旺。第一季度，大陆地区7家最大的银行就税前利润取得了与上一年同期相比16%的增幅。不良贷款率仍走低，约1%左右。但是，未来中国银行业的桎梏正越来越深。There are two big worries: bad local-government debt and souring property loans. The infrastructure binge of the past few years saw a boom in local-government financing vehicles (LGFVs), off-balance-sheet entities used to get around prohibitions on borrowing. Regulators say these entities’ bank debts were worth $1.4 trillion at the end of September. Private estimates range much higher, and suggest that 20-30% may be non-performing.主要担忧有两个：地方政府债务坏账和不良住房贷款。在过去的数年间，基础建设的泛滥导致了地方政府融资平台和用以躲避借贷禁令的资产负债表外实体的迅速发展。监管者们称，截至九月底，该类实体银行债务达1万4千亿美元。私人机构称，实际的债务更高，并表明其中的20%到30%都是坏账。The government is trying to defuse the bomb. One experiment is the issuance of local bonds to replace these loans. Officials also published guidance in March pushing banks to roll loans over, in the hope that growth will solve the problem. Another wheeze is shoving these loans onto the books of “policy banks” like China Development Bank (CDB), whose balance-sheets are now suffering (see chart). Half a trillion yuan, around $80 billion, in LGFV debt was rolled over last year from commercial banks to the CDB alone.政府当局正试图拆掉这个“炸弹”。一项（拆弹）测试便是，发行地方债券用以取代该类贷款。3月份官员们也发布了银行指导条例，用以推动银行延缓贷款时间，寄希望于经济的增长来解决问题。另一项喘息之计在于，将这笔贷款从商业银行账簿转移至如国家开发银行等政策性银行账簿，国家发展银行的资产负债表正处在水深火热当中（见图）。去年，地方政府融资平台债务中5000亿人民币（约800亿美圆）由各商业银行单独地转存国家发展银行。The other headache is property, which is undergoing a government-forced cooling. Because real estate touches many parts of the economy, some worry that NPLs in