决定未来经济的12大颠覆技术课件.ppt

84 Assuming that autonomous trucks could travel long distances in tightly spaced caravans and that drivers would not be needed in most vehicles, self-driven trucking could have a potential economic impact of $100?billion to $500?billion per year in 2025. We think it is possible that between 2017 and 2025, 10 to 30?percent of trucks sold could be at least partially autonomous. Self-driving trucks potentially could be used for long-distance highway driving. However, over shorter distances, or for local deliveries, a driver would still be needed. But even local delivery trucking could benefit from autonomous driving features that improve fuel efficiency and safety. We assume that half of autonomous trucks could still have a driver (to provide service or make deliveries, for example); for convoys of fully self-driving trucks, there might be one or two drivers for every ten trucks. If adoption of autonomous trucks occurs at the rates calculated here, we estimate economic impact of higher driver productivity could be $100?billion to $300?billion per year in 2025. Autonomous trucks could also prevent 2,000 to 10,000 traffic deaths per year in 2025 (as with passenger cars, 70 to 90?percent of trucking accidents are caused by human behavior, such as falling asleep at the wheel). Based on evolving technology, it is possible that autonomous trucks could be spaced less than three feet apart while driving, reducing fuel consumption by 15 to 20?percent by sharply reducing air resistance. Combined with speed control optimized for fuel efficiency, we estimate that autonomous trucks can use 10 to 40?percent less fuel than non-autonomous trucks. BARRIERS AND ENABLERS Governments will have a central role in determining whether the potential value of autonomous vehicles will be realized. Government efforts to encourage the development and ultimate adoption of autonomous cars and trucks could greatly speed their impact by helping to overcome concerns about technology, safety, liability,