哈佛大学肯尼学院教授Frankel的论文之十四+TRADE+ANDGROWTH.docVIP

first draft Dec. 27, 1994 Revised 2/8/95, 6/6 and 10/30/95; 2/26/96; draft 7: Revised June 21+7/18sup +, 1996 NBER Working Paper No. 5732, August 1996. To be published in NICs After Asian Miracle, New World Order Series, vol. 23, edited by H. Singer, N. Hatti and R.Tandon, BR Publishing Corporation (India) Ltd., forthcoming 2000. TRADE AND GROWTH IN EAST ASIAN COUNTRIES: CAUSE AND EFFECT? Jeffrey A. Frankel David Romer Teresa Cyrus Department of Economics University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-3880 keywords: export-led growth, Asian miracle, East Asia, gravity model JEL Classification numbers: O1, O4, O53 The authors would like to thank for support the Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C., where Frankel was a Senior Fellow when much of this paper was written; the Export-Import Insurance Department of JETRO New York; the Center for International and Development Economics Research, funded at U.C. Berkeley by the Ford Foundation; and the Japan-United States Friendship Commission, a U.S. government agency. The authors would also like the thank Susanto Basu, Michael Dotsey, Brian Easton, Robert Hall, N. Gregory Mankiw, Glenn Rudebusch, James Stock, Shang-Jin Wei, Richard Zeckhauser for comments on earlier drafts.  TRADE AND GROWTH IN EAST ASIAN COUNTRIES: CAUSE AND EFFECT? ABSTRACT Estimates of growth equations have found a role for openness, particularly in explaining rapid growth among East Asian countries. But major concerns of simultaneous causality between growth and trade have been expressed. This study aims to deal with the endogeneity of trade by using as instrumental variables the exogenous determinants from the gravity model of bilateral trade, such as proximity to trading partners. We find that the effect of openness on growth is even stronger when we correct for the endogeneity of openness than in standard OLS estimates. We conclude with estimates of how much has been contributed to East Asian growth both by the ex