Ranom Variables Disributions随机变量及disributions.pptVIP

Random Variables Probability Distributions Outcomes of experiments are, in part, random E.g. Let X7 be the gender of the 7th randomly selected student. In this case, the sample space is S={M,F} Probability distributions used to understand, model, and predict outcomes of random experiments. Many useful distributions for describing random processes in environmental science mgt. Example: Hazardous Waste Hazardous Waste Depository: test wells-monitor groundwater for leaks. Aldicarb limit = 30 ppb Aldicarb occurs naturally (but concentration is variable). What is probability of exceeding limit even if no leak? (Prob measuring 30 even if no leak?) Evidence and Data “Natural” distribution of aldicarb: 500 readings from sites known to not be contaminated: Evidence Cont’d Based on this distribution, we will assume these data are normally distributed with: Mean = 20 ppb Standard Deviation = 4 ppb Definitions Random Variable: the unknown outcome of an experiment. The particular outcome is a realization of the random variable. E.g. (1) rain Tues., (2) aldicarb measurement r.v. takes diff. values each w/ diff. probs. Histogram: plot of the frequency of observation of a random variable over discrete intervals. Discrete vs. Continuous Random Variable Frequency of Outcomes Probability Density (Mass) Function: Histogram of outcomes resulting from infinite # samples: (Prob = area under) For cont., bar width approaches 0 Cumulative Distribution Function: Probability that the r.v. ? x. Examples on board: # Grizzly cubs per sow (1,2,1,2,2,2,2,3,1,2) Histogram vs. known prob. mass (.13, .70, .17) Natural aldicarb concentration Histogram (of data) vs. pdf N(20,4) Known vs. Unknown Distributions True distribution may not be a known distribution (e.g. dist’n of student’s heights in this classroom) Often, knowing how a process works will point us to a particular (known) distribution Advantages of known distributions: Can usually be described by 1 or 2 parameters. Well studied, so