基于GIS技术的东北地区粮食作物气候生产潜力研究.docVIP

摘 要 在全球气候变暖背景下，气候对农业和农业生产潜力的影响越来越明显。为了研究气候变化对我国农业的影响，本论文收集了我国东北地区（黑龙江、吉林和辽宁三省）72个气象站点的光、热、水等气象资料和作物的生长发育期及产量资料，使用GIS技术，分析了我国东北地区1961~2004年的太阳辐射、温度、降水等农业气候资源的时空演变特征，以“机制法”为基础，对作物生产潜力模型进行了光、温、水的逐级订正，估算了该区玉米、水稻和大豆生长季的光合、光温和气候生产潜力。 研究结果表明：（1）44年来太阳辐射呈减少趋势；年总辐射值及作物生长季的太阳总辐射值呈现由东向西逐渐增加的趋势，太阳日照时数时空变化与总辐射变化大致相同。（2）年稳定通过10℃持续日数和活动积温及生长季月平均气温在44年中都呈上升趋势；稳定通过10℃的持续日数和活动积温及生长季月平均气温均呈现由西南向东北逐渐减少的情况。（3）从1961年至2004年，全年及生长季降水量呈减少趋势；年降水量的空间分布呈现由南向北减少的情况，最高值主要集中在辽宁东部；各省西部地区均为降水缺乏区域，降水的地区差异大；44年中降水集中指数明显减小。（4）由于太阳辐射的减少导致作物的光合生产潜力下降，但由于温度的明显上升，作物的光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力呈不同程度的上升趋势。各地光合生产潜力空间差异不大，光温生产潜力呈由西向东减少的趋势，气候生产潜力呈由南向北减少的趋势。（5）玉米气候增产潜力高值区主要在辽宁省，水稻气候增产潜力最大区在东北三省西部及牡丹江与延吉一带，大豆气候增产潜力高值区在辽宁大部及吉林省延吉一带。各地主要作物农业自然资源利用率差别较大，粮食增产潜力大的地区，资源利用率水平不高。 关键词：气候变化；生产潜力；气候资源利用；GIS；东北地区 Abstract Under the background of global climatic warming, climate has more and more evident impacts on agriculture and crop potential productivity. Northeast China, a high latitude region including three provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning, is sensitive to climatic changes. In order to study the impacts of climatic changes on agriculture, we selected Northeast China as an example, and 72 meteorological stations in Northeast China were covered, the climatic factors including light, temperature, precipitation as well as data about the growing periods and yields of the main crops in Northeast China were collected. Based on Geographic Information System (GIS), we analyzed the spatial-temporal patterns of radiation, temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2004 in Northeast China. Based on Mechanism Method, we gradually corrected crop potential productivity models on the parameters of light, heat and moisture, and calculated the photosynthetic potential, light-heat potential, and climatic potential of main crops, e.g. maize, rice and soybean in Northeast China. The main research results were summarized as follows:(1) The temporal patterns of radiation showed a decreasing trend from 1961 to 2004, and the spatial patter