Risk_Pollution Reduction and Expert Group Judgment_June risk_pollution还原和专家组judgment_june.pptVIP

Risk/Pollution Reduction and Expert Group Judgmentin the Maritime Industry Dr. N.P. Ventikos, P.G. Anaxagorou, NTUA POPC – POLLUTION PREVENTION CONTROL Risk/Pollution Reduction and Expert Group Judgmentin the Maritime Industry * * POPC – POLLUTION PREVENTION CONTROLSafe Transportation of Hazardous Goods by Tankers N.T.U.A. - POPC WP7 Subtask 7.1.1 01, June 2005 Targets Basis of Approach – Implemented Methodology Consequence Analysis – Results Expert Judgment Assessment – Examples Proposal of Case Studies (Consequence / Risk) Presentation of The Pollution Control Options OVERVIEW Based on Specific ET Structures Analysis Exploitation of Answers/Judgment from Group of Experts Regarding the Consequence/Risk Potential of each of the Provided Casualty Scenarios for Tankers Identification of Risk/Pollution Control Options (through Case Studies) TARGETS Post Accident Assessment Questionnaires and ET Structure (per Type of Casualty) was Provided to the Expert Group Expert Group Judgment Assessment of Expert Group Judgment (not Possible through the Concordance Coefficient ‘W’, Annex of MSC 78/19/2) Classification and Rule-based Knowledge Theory Consequence-based Analysis and Risk-based Analysis ? Rules Decision Trees Pollution Control Options (through the Proposal and Survey of Case Studies) KEY STEPS OF IMPLEMENTED METHODOLOGY ACCIDENT ET Structure ET Scenarios Answers from Expert Group METHODOLOGY INPUTS Event Gates Scenarios/Endings Experts’ Scoring 1 Frequency  3 Severity Slots PROVIDED SCALES FOR SCORING/VOTING ET Scenarios Answers from Experts Processing of Answers for Consequence Mapping (Distribution) of Votes Assessment of Expert Judgment Consensus Rules Decision Trees Critical Events Simplified Scenarios Consequence Analysis METHODOLOGY STEPS FOR CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS The scope is to identify/simulate what the experts perceived as important in terms of events for giving their consequence/probab