Aftershock Relaxation for Japanese and Sumatra Earthquakes：日本和苏门答腊的地震余震松弛.pptVIP

Aftershock Relaxation for Japanese and Sumatra Earthquakes Kazu Z. Nanjo1, B. Enescu2, R. Shcherbakov3, D.L. Turcotte3, T. Iwata1, Y. Ogata1 1, ISM, Tokyo, Japan 2, Kyoto Univ., Kyoto, Japan 3, UC Davis, CA, USA Test of the generalized Omori’s law for Kobe Test of the generalized Omori’s law for Sumatra Test of the generalized Omori’s law for Tottori Establishment of the GR law (1) Establishment of the GR law (2) Establishment of the GR law (2) Conclusion The generalized Omori’s law proposes: Hypoth. I: τ scales with a lower cutoff mag. m and c is a constant. Hypoth. II: c scales with m and τ is a constant. Hypoth. III: Both c and τ scale with m. 6 main shocks in Japan and Sumatra. Earthq. catalogs of JMA and ANSS. AIC and maximum likelihood to find the best hypoth. The hypoth. II is best applicable to the entire sequence for different cutoff mag. from a state defined immediately after the main shock. The c value is the characteristic time associated with the establishment of the GR law. Test of the generalized Omori’s law for Niigata To find the optimal fitting of the prediction to the data for individual hypotheses, we first use point process modeling with maximum likelihood. We next use AIC to find the best hypothesis. The best is the hypothesis with the smallest AIC. We know the # of parameters. We have two parameters for these hypotheses. We have three parameters for the hypothesis III. Next, we will show the results for the Kobe case. For the hypothesis I, the optimized parameters are given here. Using these values, we draw the predicted curves. We did the same things for the other hypotheses. The best is the hypothesis II. The second best is the hypothesis III. The difference in AIC is very small, because hypothesis III chose the results that are very similar to those for the hypothesis II. Hypothesis I is extremely bad, because the disagreement of the prediction with the data is quite large in the early period. Next let me check ano