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SIMULATION MODELS - Universidad Autónoma de Madrid模拟模型-马德里自治大学
SIMULATION MODELS 1st Week INTRODUCTION Master économie Internationale et Développement Université Paris Dauphine Dr. Rafael de Arce Professeur Univ. Autónoma de Madrid http://www.uam.es/rafael.dearce WHY DO POLICY-MAKERS NEED MODELS? Reference paper: Piermartini, R. and Teh, R. (2005): “Demystifying Modelling Methods for Trade Policy”. WTO Discussion Papers, num. 10. September, 2005. Economic models provide a theoretically consistent, rigorous and quantitative way of evaluating different policy analysis. Multiple options, multiple actors. A simulation of the model can confirm that judgment and provide estimate of the likely gains Models can alert about effects in inter-related issues But, what’s first? “The tail shouldn’t wag the dog” Master économie Internationale et Développement, Université Paris Dauphine WHY DO POLICY-MAKERS NEED MODELS? WHY DO POLICY-MAKERS NEED MODELS? EXPONENTIAL GROWTH Largeness and wideness Statistical collection (“Big data and Macro/Micro data availability) Increase of Computational power Advances in theoretical analysis Master économie Internationale et Développement, Université Paris Dauphine Moore Law “Sylicone chip procesor doubles its capacity in 18 months....” STRENGTHS Reflects Inter-dependency of economic variables Computer based models allow us to track all of these interactions Simulation of several scenarios is available Simulations are performed in a transparent hypothesis frame They discipline thinking about how economies actually work Master économie Internationale et Développement, Université Paris Dauphine LIMITATIONS Aggregations can obscure important underlying relationships Data are not always “high quality” All the quantitative models are subject to error Responsiveness of supply and demand to price changes are not necessarily accurate Choices among scenarios and model specification can imply very different results Technical comprehension is only available for experts Master économie Internationale et D
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