X Sector Modeling Simulation：X部门的建模与仿真.ppt

NISAC PUBLIC HEALTH SECTOR:Disease Outbreak Consequence Management Stephen Eubank Los Alamos National Laboratory April 2003 Interdependent Infrastructure Simulations Simulate outbreak to evaluate objective (cost) function Path of outbreak determined by individuals’ use of infrastructure Public Health controls behavior and response of individuals Interaction with other sectors mediated by individuals Model complex interactions between aggregate systems OR Simulate much simpler interactions between many individuals Individual-Based Models Complement Traditional Epidemiological Models Traditional rate equations model subpopulations: Subpopulation based on a few demographics Subpopulation mixing rates unknown Reproductive number not directly observable Individual-Based Models Complement Traditional Epidemiological Models Individual-Based Model: Individuals carry many demographics Individual contact rates estimated independently Reproductive number emerges from transmission Top Down Structuring is Ambiguous Why Instantiate Social Networks? N vertices - ~ 2(N2) graphs(non-identical people - few symmetries) E edges - ~ N(2E) graphs Degree distribution - ?? graphs Clustering coefficient - ?? graphs What additional constraints - graphs equivalent w.r.t. epidemics? Measures of Centrality Same degree distribution (green vertices are degree 4, orange degree 1) Different assortative mixing by degree Gaps in existing technology Need novel combination of scale and resolution Ackerman, Halloran, Koopman: individual resolution, only ~1000 people Murray, Hethcote, Kaplan, many others:mixing in infinitely large populations, no resolution EpiSims: millions of individual people interacting with other sectors Initial stages crucial for response Individual based simulation only tool focused there Individual-based epidemiology: a road map A Typical Family’s Day Others Use the Same Locations Time Slice of a Typical Family’s Day Who’s in contact doing what at 10 AM? A Sca