大豆将现买入投资价值.docVIP

大豆将显现买入投资价值 ——2010年大豆年度投资报告 内容摘要 全球经济仍处于平稳复苏的进程之中，世界主要经济体为使各自经济尽快摆脱低迷而向金融市场大量注资的行为引发投资者对未来通货膨胀的忧虑不断加深，通胀买盘已将国际大宗商品价格底部大幅抬升。百年一遇的金融危机对实体经济的冲击不是一两年可以有所恢复，世界经济的复苏之路注定困难重重。09/10年度全球大豆供需状况较上一年度有较大改善，这主要得益于美豆的丰收和预期南美大豆大幅增产。当前中美产量已基本确定，美豆结转库存受中国需求因素推动或将进一步趋紧，但预计中国的进口需求对美豆期价的支撑将难以为继，而南美大豆能否实现增产预期还取决于天气状况。国内方面，政府又一次将中央一号文件锁定“三农”，尤其是对农民收入与就业给予大力支持，这对农产品尤其大豆期价视为利好，另一方面，延续至2010年4月30日的国储收购政策对国内期价有政策托底效应。最后，国际国内商品市场大涨，农产品涨幅落后产生价值洼地效应，极有可能成为资金2010年挖掘的对象，震荡上行或许成为后市的主基调。 关键词：经济复苏、通涨预期、价值洼地、震荡向上 The value of buying soybean appears under the inflation expectations 棗soybean market annual investment report of 2010 Abstract ，The global economy is still in the process of recovery, the leading economies in the world make their economies out of the doldrums as soon as possible by injecting the liquidity into the financial markets, a large number of investors lead to deepening fears of inflation, the commodity prices up from the bottom a lot duy to the inflation expectations.The impact of the financial crisis over the past hundred years on the real economy is not over,there could be some obstacles to recovery in the world economy. The annual global soybean supply and demand of 09/10 have been greatly improved, largely thanks to the U.S. soybean harvest and the expected substantial increases in production of soybean in South America. Current U.S. production has been basically comfirmed, the U.S. soybean carryover stocks by Chinese demand factors will further tighten, but it is expected that Chinas import demand of the U.S. soybean will be difficult to sustain, while the South American soybean yield can be achieved is depending on weather conditions.Domesticly, the central government once again locks Agriculture on the 1st file, especially given the farmers income and employment issue as piority, and for the agricultural products, particularly soybean prices,it will be a positive sign for it.On the other hand, the State Reserve policy of 2010 extends to April 30, 2010,intern