SARS对中国物流影响的研究的报告.docVIP

SARS对中国物流影响研究报告（SARS and China Logistics）  Part I Economic ImpactsIntroductionThe recent outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) has threatened short-term growth prospects in Asia. As of 5 May 2003, SARS has infected more than 6,500 people worldwide, and caused mounting concern. A number of East and Southeast Asian economies, including People’s Republic of China (PRC); Hong Kong, China; Singapore; Taipei, China; and Viet Nam have been put under considerable strain. The epidemic has also affected other economies, although to a lesser extent. Some positive developments and improved public health measures in recent weeks have added weight to arguments thatSARS, although serious, will cause only a temporary shock to economic growth. However, the implications stemming from SARS extend beyond the short-term horizon. The impact of SARS, and reactions to it, raise many questions. Two are particularly important:(i) Why has attention to SARS been so prominent given itsrelatively low morbidity and mortality?(ii) How should governments deal with unexpected shocks related to the outbreak of contagious diseases?This brief assesses the economic impact of SARS in a number of East and Southeast Asian economies and explores these issues.Short-term Economic Impact of SARS Channels through which the Impact of SARS is FeltIn the short term, SARS mainly affects economic growth by reducing demand:(i) Consumer confidence has dramatically declined in a number of economies, leading to a significant reduction in private consumption spending. Much of the impact stems from the great uncertainty and fear generated by SARS. People have opted to stay at home to reduce the probability of infection.(ii) Service exports, in particular tourism-related exports, have been hard hit.(iii) Investment is affected by reduced overall demand, heightened uncertainties, and increased risks. Excess capacity will emerge or increase. Furthermore, foreign in