水库月径流概率预报研商.pdfVIP

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2017, 6(1), 1-8 Published Online February 2017 in Hans. /journal/jwrr /10.12677/jwrr.2017.61001 Probability Forecast of Monthly Reservoir Inflow Shaokun He1,2, Shenglian Guo1,2, Zhangjun Liu1,2, Jiabo Yin1,2, Xushu Wu1,2 1 State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan Hubei 2 Hubei Provincial Collaborative Innovation Centre for Water Resource Security, Wuhan Hubei th th st Received: Jan. 25 , 2017; accepted: Feb. 18 , 2017; published: Feb. 21 , 2017 Abstract The Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) was applied to preprocess the original flow series, and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were used to simulate and predict the recon- structed data series. The multivariate joint distribution based on copula function and probability fore- cast model were proposed. With a case study of Danjiangkou reservoir monthly inflow series, the proba- bility forecast results were compared with that of deterministic model. It is shown that the probability forecast model not only can improve the accuracy of middle value prediction to a certain extent but also give probability interval, which helps reservoir managers to consider uncertainty quantitatively and provides technical support for decision-making. Keywords Singular Spectrum Analysis, Artificial Neural Networks, SVM, Copula, Conditional Distribution 水库月径流概率预报研究 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 何绍坤 ，郭生练 ，刘章君 ，尹家波 ，吴旭树 1武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室，湖北 武汉 2水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心，湖北 武汉 收稿日期：2017年1月25 日；录用日期：2017年2月18 日；发布日期：2017年2月21 日 摘 要 运用奇异谱分析(SSA)方法对资料系列进行降噪处理，采用人工神经网络(ANN)和支持向量机(SVM)建立确定性 预报模型，构建基于Copula函数的联合分布，推求概率预报区间，并获得中值预报结果。以丹江口水库的月径 作者简介：何绍坤(1995-)，男，湖北鄂州人，硕士研究生，主要从事水文水资源研究。 文章引用: 何绍坤, 郭生练, 刘章君, 尹家波, 吴旭树. 水库月径流概率预报研究[J]. 水资源研究, 201