亚太-材料行业-商品价格疲软和贸易关税下降情况下的主要观点.docxVIP

PAGE PAGE 1 July 23, 2018 11:03 PM GMT July 23, 2018 11:03 PM GMT Asia Pacific Materials Our Current Top Ideas Amid Weaker Commodity Prices and Trade Tariffs Metal prices have slumped across the board as concerns grow about the impact of trade tensions. Under the current macro environment, we outline our top Overweight and Underweight calls.  MORGAN STANLEY MUFG SECURITIES CO., LTD.+ Yu Shirakawa EQUITY ANALYST MORGAN STANLEY INDIA COMPANY PRIVATE LIMITED+ Ashish Jain EQUITY ANALYST China – Overweight steel cement, underweight copper: We expect the supply  HYPERLINK mailto:Ashish.G.Jain@ Ashish.G.Jain@ 0 impact for steel and cement from environmental controls will help support prices at high levels due to the larger area impacted under Chinas new 2018- MORGAN STANLEY MUFG SECURITIES CO., LTD.+ Takato Watabe EQUITY ANALYST 2020 pollution control plan. We believe steel and cement company earnings are  HYPERLINK mailto:Takato.Watabe@ Takato.Watabe@  less cyclical and more sustainable than the market thinks, due to supply discipline. Copper is likely to be used as a macro play as we saw in past cycles. Greater China Materials Asia Pacific Our current top OW picks are Baosteel, and A H shares of both Angang and IndustryView Attractive Anhui Conch. Key UW picks are Jiangxi Copper A shares and Zijin H shares Australia Materials Asia Pacific (downgraded to UW). IndustryView In-Line Australia – Overweight Coal, mineral sands and individual stock opportunities, underweight nickel: Mineral Resources (with an expansion strategy in lithium) is India Materials Asia Pacific IndustryView In-Line a key OW pick despite our negative view on lithium, largely due to valuation support (see HYPERLINK /eqr/article/webapp/7f599baa-6efb-11e8-9253-eba70cb417b5?ch=rpintamp;sch=cfr here). Other OW calls include Iluka, driven by mineral sands being a Steel Japan late cycle commodity where we expect further pricing tailwinds. Whitehaven coal still shows valuation support