基于ARIMA模型的旅游人数预测分析论文.doc

PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT I 摘要 青岛有着丰富的旅游资源，旅游业是青岛重要的经济来源之一。因此准确的预测旅游业的发展，合理有效的分配旅游资源，能够对环境、交通以及景区等方面的建设起到重大的指导作用。本文以青岛市为研究区域，利用青岛市2000年至2012连续12年的各季度旅游人数作为基础，借助MATLAB和R软件采用多项式插值、拟合模型、余弦趋势的拟合模型、时间序列分析法中的求和自回归移动平均模型（ARIMA）预测分析法分别对青岛市未来两年的旅游收入状况进行预测分析。最后对以上几种预测分析方法作比较以确定最优的预测方法。结果表明，ARIMA模型能很好的的预测出青岛市未来的总旅游人数变化的趋势。 关键词：青岛旅游，MATLAB，R软件，ARIMA模型，时间序列 PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT II Abstract Qingdao has abundant tourism resources,and tourism is an important economic source of Qingdao.Therefore, accurate prediction of the development of tourism, reasonable and effective allocation of tourism resources, will play an important role in guiding to environment, transport and construction of scenic spot, etc . In this paper, we takes Qingdao city as the study area，and makes use of data about 12 years which ranges from the first quarter 2000 to the last quarter of 2011 as the foundation.The models we have taken contain polynomial interpolation, fitting model, and cosine trend fitting model,as well as ARIMA model in time series analysis programmed by MATLAB and R software to respectively forecast and analyze tourism income of Qingdao city over the next two years. In this paper,we also choose the best model of several kinds of prediction analysis method above as the final prediction method. Consequently,results show that the ARIMA model is the best method to predict the Qingdao future trends in the number of total travel. Key words: Qingdao tourism, MATLAB, R software, the ARIMA model, time series PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT III 目录 TOC \o 1-2 \h \u HYPERLINK \l _Toc26158 1绪论 PAGEREF _Toc26158 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc30544 1.1论文研究背景 PAGEREF _Toc30544 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc969 1.2论文研究目的 PAGEREF _Toc969 2 HYPERLINK \l _Toc26605 1.3论文研究意义 PAGEREF _Toc26605 2 HYPERLINK \l _Toc839 2对旅游人数的分析研究 PAGEREF _Toc839 3 HYPERLINK \l _Toc27801 2.1数据的收集与来源 PAGEREF _Toc27801 3 HYPERLINK \l _Toc1648 2.2旅游人数预测的传统方法介绍 PAGEREF _Toc1648 3