高盛 铁矿石和焦煤价格研究报告 2010.pdfVIP

渐飞研究报告 - ACTION 9 March 2010 Commodities Iron Ore And Coking Coal: Price Forecast Upgrade Commodities | Australia Iron ore - a bumper year for volumes and realised prices Analyst: Malcolm Southwood +61 3 9679 1647 • We expect seaborne trade in iron ore to grow by a record 100 million malcolm.southwood@ tonnes this year as continued growth in Chinese imports is accompanied by a recovery in non-Chinese demand - albeit from low levels in 2009. Analyst: Paul Gray • The incumbent suppliers of iron ore will struggle to meet demand growth +44 20 7552 0571 of this magnitude, meaning that high cost marginal producers remain a paul.gray@ key part of the supply chain. This should continue to support spot iron ore prices into China; we have raised our spot price forecast for CY 2010 by approximately 15% to $113/t (FOB netback basis) 62% Fe fines. • In order to reduce the gap between Chinese spot prices and fixed contract prices for Australian fines, we believe the latter should rise by 60% effective from JFY 2010/11 shipments. From 2011 onwards we believe spot and contract prices will converge on a FOB netback basis. • A 60% contract price rise would take the Asian price of Pilbara Blend fines to $96/t FOB, above the previous peak of $90/t achieved in 2008 at a time when Asian HRC prices were over $1000/t. • As pricing mechanisms evolve it is increasingly necessary to view pricing in the context of average realised price achieved ($/t basis) rather than focussing exclusively on headline contra