第一讲：投资学基础幻灯片.pptVIP

《国际金融》讲稿 2002/2003下半年 徐伟 主要内容 在金融学的大框架下去理解“投资学：如何在不确定的世界中进行跨期的理性选择”。 明确证券投资学的两个大前提：经济人理性和市场的有效性。 介绍本课程的进度安排。 课本的一、二、三章内容请自学。 1.1 Rational Choice（理性选择） The first choice:You can get $120/week. The second choice:You can get $110 and it’s probability is 50%;or you can get $130 and it’s probability is 50%. Investment Speculate Gambling 1.2 The time value of money（跨期） 买车还是租车（买房还是租房） 选择1：租赁汽车4年，每月租金3000元 选择2：购买汽车，车价为180,000元；4年后，预期以60,000元将汽车卖掉 如果利率为每月0.5％，哪个选择更合算？ 答案： 1.2 The time value of money（跨期） 1.3 The issue of information（不确定的世界） Adverse selection and Moral hazard. Principal-agent problem 1.4 Finance（金融学框架） 家庭金融决策 消费和储蓄决策 投资决策 融资决策 风险管理决策 企业金融决策 项目投资决策 融资决策 －股东权益 －公司债券 －银行贷款 流动性决策或营运资本管理 1.4 Finance（金融学框架） 2. Market Efficiency （市场的有效性） A Case for Insider Trading —— A Classroom Experiment This experiment is essentially a pair of auctions, one conducted after the other. In each round the participants bid, via open outcry, for an envelope. The envelope (the stock) will be sold via an open outcry, ascending price, English auction -- the standard kind of auction most people are accustomed to. The First Round The participants are told that the envelope contains either $4 or $20. The envelope is really a share of stock in a drug company, and the true value of the stock depends on the outcome of clinical trials of a new product. The insiders will be allowed to trade Slip #1 (for insiders): laksdfjasdkl;fjasdf;kljadf;lkjafdl;kj asdl;fkjasdfkl;ajsdf;lkasdj;lkadfjl;j The drug works sdfl;kajskjld adf;kljadf;kljafsdkl;jasdfl;kjadfdfk sdfl;kjasdf;lkasdjfl;aksdfjl;akdfjfdj Slip #2 (for outsiders): asdl;fkjasdfkl;ajsdf;lkasdj;lkadfjl;j adfklj-fl;kajskjldadf;kljadf;kljafsdkl;jasdfl;kjadfdfk sdfl;kjasdf;lkasdjfl;aksdfjl;akdfjfdj adfl;kjasdf;klajsdf;klasdjf;kljfdkjfj the Second Round The drug is now known to be effective It is now illegal for insiders to bid The insiders raise their hands so that everyone can see that th