货币银行学课件 第18节.pptVIP

? 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc. Chapter 18 Conduct of Monetary Policy: Goals and Targets(货币政策的实施：最终目标与政策指标） ? 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc. 18-* Goals of Monetary Policy Goals 1. High Employment 2. Economic Growth 3. Price Stability 4. Interest Rate Stability 5. Financial Market Stability 6. Foreign Exchange Market Stability 我国货币政策目标：促进经济增长，保持币值稳定 美联储货币政策目标：物价与金融市场稳定 18-*  当前(2008)我国货币政策目标选择温家宝：今年恐怕是中国经济最困难的一年 温家宝说，我深知这件事情的困难。我曾经讲过，今年恐怕是中国经济最困难的一年。难在什么地方？难在国际、国内不可测的因素多，因而决策困难。我们必须密切关注经济局势的变化和走势，及时、灵活地采取对策，并且把握宏观调控的节奏、方向和力度，使经济既保持平稳、较快发展，又能解决大约一千万的就业人口问题，还能有效地抑制通货膨胀。 18-* 18-* Central Bank Strategy 18-* Money Supply Target 1. M d fluctuates between M d and M d 2. With M-target at M*, i fluctuates between i and i 18-* Interest Rate Target 1. M d fluctuates between M d and M d 2. To set i-target at i* Ms fluctuates between M and M 工具选择问题 IS方程受到随机冲击，位于IS1和IS2之间。 假设货币需求方程恒定，如果货币存量固定为M*，那么LM方程为LM1，收入介于Y1和Y2之间。 如果利率固定为r*，那么LM方程为LM2，收入介于Y0和Y3，范围比从Y1到Y2大得多。 这幅图显示了工具选择问题：是确定M*，让r随机波动，还是确定r*，让M变动。 工具选择问题 IS方程不变，货币需求方程随机变动。 设定货币存量为M*，LM方程将介于LM1和LM2，收入介于Y1和Y2. 设定利率为r*，那么LM为LM3，收入为Yf. 在这种情况下，利率作为政策工具是合理的。 18-* Choosing Targets The conclusion from Figures 18-2 and 18-3 is that interest rate and monetary aggregate targets are incompatible（不调和的）: a central bank can hit one or the other but not both. Because a choice between them has to be made, we need to examine what criteria should be used to decide on the target variable（确定指标变量的标准）. 18-* Criteria for Choosing Targets Criteria for Intermediate Targets 1. Measurability(可测性） 2. Controllability（可控性） Ability to Predictably Affect Goals（对目标有可预计的影响） 18-* Fed:Historical Perspective The early years:discount policy as the primary tool Reason: Doctrine:providing reserves to the banking system to make discounting loans would not be inflationary. Fed had not yet discovered that open market operations were a more powerful tool for influencing the money supply,and the law made no provisions for changes in reserve