高速公路边坡稳定性评价新方法张菊连指南.pdfVIP

第 32 卷第 12 期 岩 土 力 学 Vol.32 No.12 2011 年 12 月 Rock and Soil Mechanics Dec. 2011 文章编号：1000－7598 (2011) 12 －3623 －08 高速公路边坡稳定性评价新方法 1 1, 2 张菊连 ，沈明荣 （1.同济大学 地下建筑与工程系，上海 200092 ；2. 同济大学 岩土及地下工程教育部重点实验室，上海 200092 ） 摘 要：为能在初期勘察阶段及少量室内和现场试验的基础上快速、准确地对高速公路边坡进行稳定性评价，提出了一种新 的边坡稳定性评价方法。基于福建省高速公路边坡资料，以现场稳定情况为因变量，影响边坡稳定性的 14 个因子为自变量， 利用 Logistic 逐步回归遴选显著影响因子，建立了边坡稳定性评价的 Logistic 回归模型。该模型符合拟合优度检验，模型稳 定性良好，且预测结果准确。另外，模型影响因子的调查和获取比较容易，模型可处理定性因素，边坡稳定评价过程亦方便、 快捷，因而边坡稳定性评价的 Logistic 回归分析可在高速公路边坡工程中推广应用。 关 键 词：Logistic 回归；高速公路边坡；边坡稳定性评价；影响因子；因变量 中图分类号：U 412.36 文献标识码：A A new approach to expressway slope stability assessment ZHANG Ju-lian1, SHEN Ming-rong1, 2 (1. Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China； 2. Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering of Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China) Abstract: In order to evaluate expressway slope stability rapidly and accurately based on a small amount of indoor and field tests during initial survey, this paper presents a new slope stability assessment method. Based on slope data from Fujian expressways, field slope stability condition was investigated, and 14 factors that might affect the slope stability were collected; then the Logistic stepwise regression was used to select significant factors, and finally a slope stability evaluation Logistic regression model with significant factors as independent variables and field slope stability condition as dependent variable was established. Th