计量经济学(cpi探究).docxVIP

计量经济学课程论文 ——消费者价格指数（CPI）相关因素的实证研究 2011年5月 Abstract Abstract: The overheating of Chinese economy starting from 2007 is actually a forewarning of inflation. While 2008 had seen the global financial crisis, china seems to stand on the feet during this recession, keeping up the rapid growth. However, after the crisis, especially after carrying out the “4000 billion” investment policy in June, 2009, the government had to accept the truth that china was facing a severe pressure of inflation. From 2010, the inflation was becoming more and more serious, attracting more and more attention, and the government also began to concentrate on controlling the domestic inflation. However, there is not a unanimous opinion about the reasons that caused inflation. Since the understanding of factors resulting in the inflation plays a significant role in establishing a proper policy aimed at suppressing inflation, it is very necessary to conduct an empirical study on varied factors contributing to inflation. By applying the methods of econometrics, this article analyzed three factors: money supply, the credit quota and the price of raw material. From the result of empirical study, we found out that the main factors causing inflation are the unbalancing increase in money supply. Besides, the blind expansion of credit quota has led to amplification in the money multiplier, also accounting for the inflation. What’s more, the increase in commodity price, especially in agriculture products, is an important factor of inflation. Key word: CPI Money Supply Credit Quota Corporate Goods Price Index Econometric Model Structural Form 目录 TOC \o 1-3 \h \z \u HYPERLINK \l _Toc293920251 Abstract PAGEREF _Toc293920251 \h 2 HYPERLINK \l _Toc293920252 【引言】 PAGEREF _Toc293920252 \h 4 HYPERLINK \l _Toc293920253 一． 问题的提出 PAGEREF _Toc293920253 \h 4 HYPERLINK \l _Toc293920254 二． 模型设定与数据处理 PAGEREF _Toc293920254 \h 5 HYPERLINK \l _Toc293920255 （一）理论依据 PAGEREF _Toc293920255 \h 5 HYPERLINK \l _To