【毕业论文】基于收入分配对经济增长的策略研究论文.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 25 基于收入分配对经济增长的策略研究 计算机科学系 信息管理与信息系统专业 摘 要 改革开放以来，我国经济取得了辉煌的成就，然而伴随而来的是收入差距越来越大，以致引起了国内外学者的高度重视。关于收入分配不平等对经济到底是有正面影响还是负面影响，许多学者在这个问题上争论不休。笔者认为：如果一国收入差距越来越大，那么这个国家的财富会向少数人手里集中，将会引起这个国家的有效需求的降低。这是因为高收入者受生理极限的限制，消费倾向最终会持续低迷，其高收入大部分不会转化成消费。低收入者和中等收入者有消费欲望而没有消费能力。最终有效需求不足，而有效需求不足也会导致经济增长减速。本文利用计量经济学软件EVIEWS5.0建立收入不平等与经济增长的数理模型并进行实证分析，从而提出促进西双版纳州经济增长的策略。 关键字：收入不平等；经济增长；消费需求 目 录 1. 引言··································································1 2. 我国经济增长的形势及所面临的问题······························3 3. 我国收入分配现状及形成原因···································8 3.1 收入分配现状··························································8 3.1.1 我国收入分配现状的特点················································8 3.1.2 形成原因······························································9 3.2 收入不平等的衡量······················································10 3.2.1 洛仑兹曲线····························································11 3.2.2 基尼系数······························································12 3.2.3 泰尔指数······························································12 3.2.4 离散系数······························································13 4. 数理模型及实证检验···········································14 4.1 云南省居民消费增长和GDP增长因果关系的检验····························14 4.1.1 Granger因果检验的简单介绍············································14 4.1.2 云南省城镇居民消费和GDP的Granger因果检验····························15 4.2 云南省城乡居民收入分配差距与消费关系的检验····························17 4.2.1 建立模型······························································17 4.2.2 验证分析······························································18 5. 总结及建议···················································20 5.1 总结··································································20 5.2 建议··································································20 5.2.1 云南省西双版纳州的州情分析············································20 5.2.2 对云南省西双版纳州再次腾飞的几点建议································22参考文献··········