CBD项目投资决策风险的识别与评价研究 毕业论文.docVIP

江苏科技大学管理学硕士论文 摘 要 Ⅱ PAGE \* ROMAN \* MERGEFORMAT I 摘 要 CBD是城市发展过程中的必然产物。随着城市现代化的发展，越来越多的国家和地区在筹建CBD项目，在我国CBD建设近年来呈现出如火如荼的状态。但是不是每一个CBD的建成都带来了经济社会效益，由于项目决策的盲目性，一些CBD的建设甚至为城市的发展带来重创，不仅没有带来效益而且带来了很大的社会问题，比如CBD周边交通拥堵、城市CBD的功能淡化等问题。在如今的城市CBD建设中如何避免这些问题的出现呢？必须对项目的决策依据做出充分的论证，而这些依据主要集中在项目决策风险上，因此有必要对CBD项目投资决策风险进行研究。 文章通过对国内外CBD相关研究文献进行综述发现针对CBD的已有研究多侧重在城市规划视角下的研究，而对CBD项目投资决策风险涉及较少。论文首先简单介绍了CBD的相关概念与CBD项目决策风险的相关理论，论述我国CBD建设的问题与风险研究的必要性；然后详细论述了CBD项目投资决策风险的识别与评价，按照风险与外界的关系将风险因素分为系统外部风险、系统内部风险与系统交错风险等三类，并运用工作-风险分解法对CBD项目决策风险进行了识别，建立了CBD项目风险库，同时给出了CBD项目风险因素指标权重的确定方法；接下来考虑到综合风险是系统不可控制风险与可控制风险的综合体，将相对风险标度比系数引入模糊综合评价方法中，对原有模型进行了修正，从而规避了传统模糊综合评价最大隶属度判断的绝对性评判缺乏科学性的缺陷；最后以长沙市经济技术开发区CBD项目为研究对象，对其投资决策风险展开研究，并基于分析结果给出了其风险控制的相应对策建议。 以上研究一定程度上丰富了项目风险管理的理论与方法，而且对提高城市CBD项目投资决策的科学性具有现实意义。 关键词 中央商务区；风险；模糊综合评价 Abstract Abstract CBD is inevitable product in the process of city development. With the development of urban modernization, the CBD project is under construction in more and more countries and regions. In recent years, the construction of CBD in our country is on a roll. But not all the construction of CBD has brought economic and social benefits. Even some of the construction of CBD development has brought heavy losses for the city , not only did not bring benefits but also brought a lot of social problems such as traffic congestion around the CBD、the city played down the function of CBD and other issues, owing to the blindness of project decisions. How to avoid these problems of the city CBD building today? Decisions must be based on the project to make a full argument, which focused on project decision-making based on risk, so it is necessary to study the CBD risk of investment decision. The paper has found that more focused perspective in urban planning research, but risk of CBD involves less investment decision, from the CBD-related articles on domestic and international research literature reviewed. Paper first introduces the concept of CBD and the related theory of CBD project