托福阅读机经景：中国信贷热潮让人忧心忡忡.docxVIP

智课网TOEFL备考资料 托福阅读机经背景：中国信贷热潮让人忧心忡忡   Taking credit for nothing  一无是处的信贷  China’s credit boom has got people worried. Should they be?  中国的信贷热潮，让人忧心忡忡。是这样吗?  IN HIS work on China’s economy, Zhang Zhiwei observes what he calls the “5:30 rule”. That is not the time he clocks off each day: he is a hard-working economist for Nomura, a Japanese bank. But the rule does refer to a time of reckoning of sorts. Mr Zhang points out that several economies have suffered financial crises after their stock of credit grew by about 30% of GDP in a span of five years or less. Japan fell foul of this rule in the latter half of the 1980s; America broke the limit in the years before 2007.  张智威在他关于中国经济的研究中提出了所谓的“5：30规则”。那不是他每天下班的点：他是一个为一家名为野村的日本银行努力工作的经济学家。但这个规则确实参考了各种精细时点。张先生指出，一些经济体遭受金融危机后，在短短的5年或更短时间内，其股票的信贷增长占国内生产总值的30%左右。日本在20世纪80年代的后半期触碰到了这一规则;美国则在2007年之前几年打破了限制。  Now Mr Zhang is worried about China. At the end of 2008 total credit to firms and households (and to non-profit organisations) amounted to less than 118% of GDP, according to a new measure calculated by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). By September 2012 the total stood at over 167%.  现在张智威担心中国会重蹈覆辙。根据国际清算银行(BIS)一项新方法统计，到2008年末，企业和家庭(以及非营利组织)的总的信贷规模达到了国内生产总值的118%不到一点。到2012年9月这一数字达到了167%。  It is natural for credit to deepen over time in a developing country. But when credit departs too far from its underlying trend, trouble often ensues. Mathias Drehmann of the BIS calculates that when the deviation exceeds 10% of GDP, it serves as a reliable early warning of a crisis within the next three years. According to our calculations, China’s credit ratio now exceeds its trend by 14 percentage points .  在一个发展中国家，随着时间的推移，信贷的扩张是很自然的。但是当信贷偏离它的基本趋势太远，麻烦往往也就随之而来。国际清算银行的Mathias Drehmann计算出当偏差超过GDP的10%，它就可以作为未来三年的危机的可靠预警。根据我们的计算，现在中国的信贷比例超过了14个百分点。  Mr Zhang is hardly the only one perturbed by this gap. It was a big reason why Fitch, a