城市天然气需求预测分析及应用-技术经济及管理专业论文.docxVIP

摘 要 天然气是带有社会公用性质的一种特殊商品，同时又是关系国家安全的一种 战略物资，对诸多行业起到基础性作用，对城市经济社会的全面发展和人民生活 水平的提高具有举足轻重的地位。因此，天然气需求预测的科学性，对燃气管网 建设、增容决策、加气站布置等具有重要意义。且天然气能源具有清洁、优质的 特性和广泛的用途，基于未来需求量研究天然气行业发展的配套措施，对环境保 护和可持续发展也具有重要意义。 首先，在天然气消费现状定性和定量研究的基础上，分析城市天然气消费的 特征，从经济类因素、人口类因素、限制类因素和发展类因素四个角度，分析影 响天然气消费的主要因素，并用灰色关联度分析及相关分析研究各因素对天然气 需求量的影响程度。由于天然气用户类型及功能类型呈现多样性，其用量受到多 种因素的影响，单纯使用基于序列本身的预测方法不能完全反映其中所包含的信 息量，故采用时间序列预测和基于因素预测相结合的方法。 其次，以重庆市为例，应用时间序列法、神经网络法、自组织数据挖掘等方 法进行组合预测，对重庆市 2009-2015 的天然气需求影响因素及需求量进行了分 析，充分提取各影响因素中的信息量，对重庆市今后几年的燃气市场发展做出预 估，为基础设施建设及天然气市场规划提供决策基础。 最后，针对城市天然气供需矛盾日益突出的现状，提出从天然气需求侧管理、 行业内企业制度完善和行业协调机制的建立三个方面制定行业配套措施，以缓解 天然气长期需求较大与短期需求不均等问题，更好地促进行业健康发展。 关键词： 天然气，影响因素，组合预测，措施 ABSTRACT Natural gas as a special commodity is one kind of community public goods, which is also a national security strategic material for many industries for the basic role it had played. Nature gas has important position for Chongqing comprehensive economic and social development and peoples living standard. Therefore, the scientific of natural gas demand forecasts has great significance for pipeline construction, capacity increase decision- making, filling stations and other important arrangements. And gas energy has features of clean, high-quality and a wide range of uses. Based on future demand of nature gas in Chongqing, this paper researches the support measures of gas industry development, which is also important for the environmental protection and sustainable development. First, this paper analyzes the status of natural gas consumption in Chongqing on the basis of qualitative and quantitative analysis of the characteristics of the regions natural gas consumption. Economic class, population types of factors limit the types of factors and the development of the four types of factors point of view, of the major factors affecting natural gas consumption, and the correlation analysis again screened for the following forecast based on factors that provide the basis. As the diversity of gas user and function