一种基于可预报性的暴雨预报评分新方法Ⅰ中国暴雨可-气象学报.PDF

doi:10.11676/qxxb2019.002 气象学报 一种基于可预报性的暴雨预报评分新方法Ⅰ： 中国暴雨可预报性综合指数 1 *1 1 1 2 1 3 4 陈静 刘凑华 陈法敬 韦青 李嘉鹏 赵滨 杨东 张志刚 1 1 1 1 2 CHEN Jing LIU Couhua CHEN Fajing WEI Qing LI Jiapeng 1 3 4 ZHAO Bin YANG Dong ZHANG Zhigang 1.国家气象中心，北京，100081 2.浙江省气象台，杭州，310002 3. 山西省气象局，太原，030002 4. 中国气象局，北京，100081 1.National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081,China 2.The Meteorological Bureau of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou 310002,China 3.The Meteorological Bureau of Shanxi Province,Taiyuan,030002,China 4.China Meteorological Administration, Beijing,100081,China 2017-12-131 收稿，2018-06-21 改回. 陈静，刘凑华，陈法敬，韦青，李嘉鹏，赵滨，杨东，张志刚，2019. 一种基于可预报的暴 雨预报评分新方法Ⅰ：中国暴雨可预报性综合指数.气象学报，77 （待刊） Chen Jing, Liu Couhua, Chen Fajing, Wei Qing, Li Jiapeng, Zhao Bin, Yang Dong, Zhang Zhigang. 2019. A new method for heavy rainfall forecast verification based on predictability Ⅰ： synthetic predictability index of heavy rainfall in china. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 77(in press) (in Chinese) Abstract To meet the requirement of developing a new method for evaluating forecast skill of heavy rainfall, the main factors effecting forecasters` confidence of heavy rainstorm forecasting, that is, the forecasting ability of statistical characteristics of the heavy rainstorm climate, the characteristics of movement scale of effecting systems and the numerical prediction model. This paper designed a new mathematical model of Synthetic Predictability Index of Heavy Rain(SPI) __________________________________________