贸易跟经济发展.ppt

貿易與經濟發展 TRADE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Todaro, Chapters 12-13 Perkins, Chapters 19 Trade Theory and Development Experience 緒論Introduction 本講討論發展中國家(LDCs or LDC-less developed countries)對外貿易政策和經濟發展議題，包括外貿如何影響經濟成長和所得分配，外貿是否促使一個國家達到發展目標，LDCs是否應追求對外導向或對內導向的外貿政策，或兩者兼具。 每個國家情況不同，不能一概而定。 雁行理論 以日本為首，東亞四小龍等國家為輔。 在日本之後，其他國家有如大雁成兩三排向前隨著飛行。 The Importance of International Trade and Finance國際貿易和金融的重要性 Many LDCs rely heavily on exports (usually primary products) Many LDCs also rely heavily on imports (typically of machinery, capital goods, intermediate producer goods, and consumer products) Five Basic Questions about Trade and Development How does international trade affect economic growth? How does trade alter the distribution of income? How can trade promote development? Can LDCs determine how much they trade? Is an outward-looking or an inward-looking trade policy best? 貿易對發展的重要性 LDCs出口趨勢和型態。 出口的重要性 需求彈性和出口盈餘不穩定性 The Importance of Trade for Development: A Statistical Review LDC exports: trends and patterns Table 12.1 Table 12.2 Fuel Export Countries 投資與儲蓄關係 Y=C+I+X-M =GC+PC+GI+PI+X-M PS=Y-GR-PC 私人儲蓄, GR=Govt revenue 政府收入 GS=GR-GC政府經常帳餘額 I=PI+GI=GS+PS+(M-X)=GS+PS+FS FS=(PI-PS)+(GI-GS) 貿易赤字＝民間超額投資＋政府總赤字（政府超額投資） The Importance of Trade for Development: A Statistical Review LDC exports: trends and patterns Importance of exports to different developing nations Figure 12.3 The Importance of Trade for Development: A Statistical Review LDC exports: trends and patterns Importance of exports to different developing nations Demand elasticities and export earnings instability The Terms of Trade and the Prebisch-Singer Thesis Total export earnings depend on: total volume of exports sold AND price paid for exports Prebisch and Singer argue that export prices fall over time, so LDCs lose revenue unless they can continually increase export volumes Prebisch and Singer think LDCs need to avoid a dependence on primary exports 貿易條件Terms of Trade (TOT) XPI/MPI 出口價格指數/進口價格指數 100 103 107