中国人口转变与消费制度变迁-人口与经济.PDF

2006 1 No. 1, 2006 ( 154 ) POPULATION ECONOMICS (Tot. No. 154) 1 2 李通屏 , 李建民 ( 1 , 430074; 2 , 300071) : 从抑制消费到刺激消费是中国消费制度的重大变革本文运用新制度经济学和 口经济学理 论, 论证了中国 口转变通过 口增长的迅速下降, 口年龄结构的变化及其带来的 口红利对消费 制度变迁的影响: 死亡率下降主导的初期阶段, 口转变固化了抑制消费的制度, 出生率下降主导阶 段, 口转变与改革开放条件下的高速经济增长相叠加加剧了原有消费制度的不均衡通过实证分 析, 揭示出消费率在 口转变过程中下降的必然性和中国保持适度 口增长的必要 : 口转变; 制度变迁; 消费; 消费制度 : C92- 05 : A : 1000- 4149 (2006) 01- 0001- 06 Population Transition and Consumption Institutional Changes in China 1 2 LI Tong-ping , LI Jian-min ( 1. Economic school, China University of Geoscience, Wuhan, Hubei Province 430074; 2Institute of Population and Development, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071) Abstract: Its a momentous historical change of consumption institutions from controlling consumption to stimulating consumption in China. Based on the principles of new institutional economics and population economics, this paper explains the effects of demographic transition on the consumption institutional change in China, through the rapid declining population growth, the age structural change and its population dividend. In the primary stage, which is dominant by the decreasing of mortality, the demographic transition strengthened the controlling consumption institutions. Whereas, in the present stage, which is dominant by the declining of fertility rate, the interaction of demographic transition and rapid economic growth overlapping under opening and reform causes old consumption institutions unequilibrium. The empirical study points out that the inevitability of Chinas f