《敏感性分析在长期投资决策中的实证研究》-毕业论文设计.docVIP

精品 毕业论文相关电子 毕业论文相关电子文档格式总体要求（若书面要求与显示不符时，以书面要求为准）: 1．页面设置格式: 页边距：上2.5，下2.5，左2.8，右2.8；装订线左边1cm。 方向：纵向；纸张：A4；页眉页脚：页眉1.5；页脚1.75。 2．字体格式： 内容中所涉及英文和数字要求以新罗马（Times New Roman）字体，中文格式要求具体见下面的要求。 3．标点符号： 英文字体下不要出现中文标点，中文下不要出现半角符号。 摘 要 随着我国社会主义市场经济体制的进一步完善，投资活动已经遍及整个社会经济生活。长期投资项目的经济效益关系到投资人的直接利益。投资决策一般为长期决策,它对未来发生的数据往往难以准确的估计。因此，如何出正确、科学的长期投资决策，较好地控制并降低长期投资的风险，提高长期投资项目的经济效益水平，就成为投资者和决策者共同关心的根本问题。本论文采用实证的研究方法，在论述相关研究成果和理论分析的基础上，以台州欣涯洁具有限公司的长期投资为研究样本，采用敏感性分析法、概率分析及贝叶斯分析，对长期投资进行敏感分析，进而对长期投资决策进行解剖说明。实证研究的结果是要通过深入的分析及多种长期投资方案的选择，对长期投资决策选出最佳方案，还可以找出影响长期投资的关键性因素。 关键词：敏感性分析；长期投资；概率分析；贝叶斯方法 Abstract As Chinas socialist market economic system to further improve the investment activity has been throughout the social and economic life. Long-term economic benefits of investment projects related to the direct interests of the investors. Investment decision-making is generally a long-term decision-making, it is often occurring in the future of the data difficult to accurately estimate. Therefore, how to make a correct and scientific long-term investment decision-making, better control and reduce the risk of long-term investment to improve the level of long-term economic benefits of investment projects, investors and policy makers have become the fundamental issues of common concern. This paper uses empirical research methods, in his discussion of the relevant research results and theoretical analysis based on the Sanitary Ware Co., Ltd. Taizhou Xin Ya long-term investment for the study sample, using sensitivity analysis, probabilistic analysis and Bayesian analysis of long-term sensitive analysis of investment and thus long-term investment decisions on the autopsy instructions. Empirical results of the study is to, through in-depth analysis and a variety of long-term investment program of choice for long-term investment decision-making to select the best programs, but also to identify the key factors that affect long-term investment. Key words: Sensitivity analysis; Long-term investment