我国天然气管网系统可靠性评价技术现状.pdf

前瞻与综述 2015 年5 月　第34 卷第5 期 1000-8241 2015 05-0464-05 文章编号： （ ） 我国天然气管网系统可靠性评价技术现状 李明菲　周利剑　郑洪龙　杨辉　雷铮强　薛鲁宁　李在蓉 中国石油管道科技研究中心油气管道输送安全国家工程实验室，河北廊坊 065000 摘要：为了保障天然气管网系统的运行安全，可以采用可靠性方法从系统层面定量评价与分析天然 气管网的物理安全水平及整体供气水平，然而，我国在此方面的研究尚处于起步阶段。总结了我国 天然气管网系统可靠性评价技术研究现状，从生产安全和供气安全两方面阐述了管网系统常用可靠 性指标的概念和算法，分别探讨了长输管道和站场两个系统单元及整个管网系统的结构可靠度评估 方法，以及系统供应可靠度和目标可靠度的确定方法，指出了管网系统可靠性评价技术的重要作用 及发展方向。（参26） 关键词：天然气管网系统；可靠性；评价 中图分类号：TE88　　　　　 文献标识码：A　　　　　doi ：10.6047/j .issn.1000-824 1.2015.05.002 Current reliability assessment techniques for natural gas pipeline networks in China LI Mingfei, ZHOU Lijian, ZHENG Honglong, YANG Hui, LEI Zhengqiang, XUE Luning, LI Zairong National Engineering Laboratory of Transportation Safety of Oil Gas Pipeline, PetroChina Pipeline R D Center, Langfang, Hebei, 065000 Abstract: To ensure safe operation of the natural gas pipeline networks, reliability assessment method can be implemented to perform quantitative assessments and analyses of physical safety and overall gas-supplying capacities of natural gas pipeline networks. Researches related to such topics in China are still in their preliminary stages. This paper reviewed current researches related to reliability assessment techniques for natural gas pipeline network systems in China. Concepts and algorithms of commonly used reliability assessment indexes for the pipeline network systems have been studied in two aspects: work safety and gas-supply safety to introduce methods available for the reliability assessments for long-distance pipelines, pump/gas compressor stations and the overall pipeline network syste