中国权益资产2019年投资策略：一溪流水泛轻舟.docxVIP

China Equity Market Structural Opportunities between Negative Macro and Positive Policies ——2019 China Equity Investment Strategy Analyst Zhang Yidong 11/27/2018 Deputy Head of Research at Industrial Securities Co. Ltd. General Manager of Overseas Market 1. 2019 China’s capital market is driven by a contractionary to expansionary fiscal policy turn. Research Center 1.1. Chinese government implies an expansionary policy in response to economic downward pressure. 1) Monetary policy is moderate but becoming more expansionary. Strict regulation and deleveraging have been put to an end. Interest rate is expected to keep going down, though improvement of credit transmission mechanism needs more time. 2）Tax cut and aid fund suggests a HYPERLINK mailto:zhangyd@ zhangyd@ positive fiscal policy. Raise of deficit, issuing of special debt and general fiscal fund offered by China Development Bank may be possible in 2019. SAC: S0190510110012 1.2. “Monetary trickling” is for risk control rather than economic stimulation. 1) Before the end of US Fed Interest Rate Hike Cycle, SFC HK：BIS749 China’s monetary policy is more likely to expansion moderately considering stability of exchange rate. 2) It is unlikely for government to propose another round of stimulation policy on real estate from domestic economic approach. ContactLi Yanlin HYPERLINK mailto:liyanlin@ Contact Li Yanlin HYPERLINK mailto:liyanlin@ liyanlin@ SAC：S0190510110015 “When Creeks Meet，A Boat Will Rise”. China stock market is now at its bottom. With capital inflow in 2019, it is ready to demonstrate investment opportunity. “Capital inflow from the West provides additional stream”. We expect overseas stock market volatility to increase in 2019. A-share market will be invested by foreign institutions due to its low correlation with major global assets. Such inflow of capital will increase international liquidity of Chinese stock market. 1) There is risk that US stock goes weak. It is likely that US economic growth