相对走估价的基本原理.pptVIP

As you lengthen the growth period, the PE ratio increases but it increases more when the expected growth rate during the period is a high number than when it is lower… The length of the growth period is a function of competitive advantages. This would indicate that you should be much more informed about a firm’s competitive position and aware of the potential slippage in this position when you are investing in a high growth company than when you are investing in a low growth company. As risk increases, PE ratios fall, not matter what the expected growth rate. At very high risk (or perceived risk), the PE ratio becomes relatively insensitive to changes in the growth rate. A manager of a high-growth, high risk firm (say a growth rate of 20% and a beta of 2) will get a much bigger payoff to reducing risk than increasing growth. Note that this assumes that growth is held constant. The only way you can increase payout, holding growth constant, is to increase the return on equity: Growth rate = (1 - Payout ratio) ROE Thus, this graph could have been drawn in terms of the ROE. Higher return on equity companies will have higher PE ratios than lower ROE companies with the same expected growth rate in earnings. Consider it the payoff to quality growth. This table was developed in the middle of 2000… The PE ratio is lowest in Mexico and highest in Chile… Not necessarily, because Chile is a safer market than Brazil and Argentina… Markets in countries with lower real growth, higher risk, higher real interest rates and less corporate efficiency (lower returns on equity) should have lower PE ratios. * 相对估价的基本原理 * 相对估价法的两个要素 一，为了在相对的基础上估价资产，必须对价格实行标准化，通常借助于把价格转换成赢利乘数、帐面价值抑或销售额。 二，找出相似的公司，存在一定的难度。 * 相对估价法获得广泛运用的理由 一，这种以乘数和可比公司为基础的估价法，与贴现现金流估价法相比，可以根据少得多的明确假设和快的多的速度而完成。 二，与贴现现金流估价法相比，相对估价法更加容易被理解和展示给顾主或客户。 三，相对估价法远为可能反映出市场对某种资产的现行感觉，因为它所衡量的是相对价值而不是内在价值。 * 相对估价法的不足 一，我们可以很方便地把相对估价法与乘数或一组可比公司进行组合。但这种便利性也会导致对于价值的估计缺乏一致性，其中，诸如风险、增长或潜在现金流之类的关键性变量可能被忽略。 二，各乘数反映了市场对于资产的感受。然而，这一事实也意味着，运用