农业气候年景评价指数构建及在江汉平原的应用-中国气象局图书馆.PDF

气象科技 进展 农业气候年景评估指数构建及在江汉平原的应用 秦鹏程1, 3 夏智宏2, 3 陈伟亮2, 3 （1 武汉区域气候中心，武汉 430074；2 荆州市气象局，荆州 434020； 3 江汉平原生态气象遥感监测技术协同创新中心 , 荆州 434025） 摘要：基于分层指标构建综合评估指数是开展气象服务的基础和主要手段之一。从农业气候资源优劣和农业气象灾害发 生程度两个方面，基于气候适宜度和气象灾害指标分别构建指标体系，并采用百分位数进行等级划分，建立了农业气候 年景评估综合指数。以江汉平原为例，从气候变化背景下的农业气候年景趋势演变，以及任意年份农业气候年景等级评 定，展示了农业气候年景评估指标体系在业务服务中的应用。结果表明：该指标体系能够客观反映农业气候年景的年际 差异以及气候变化背景下的演变特征，内涵丰富且物理意义明确，便于公众理解和服务宣传，可以满足农业气象及生态 气象服务的需求。 关键词：农业气候资源，农业气象灾害，农业气候年景，江汉平原 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2018.05.005 Construction of a Comprehensive Index for Assessing Agroclimatic Patterns by Year and Application on the Jianghan Plain Qin Pengcheng1,3, Xia Zhihong2,3, Chen Weiliang2,3 (1 Wuhan Regional Climate Center, Wuhan 430074 2 Jingzhou Meteorological Bureau, Jingzhou 434020 3 Collaborative Innovation Center of Remote Sensing Technology in Ecological and Meteorological Monitoring in the Jianghan Plain, Jingzhou 434025) Abstract: Construction of a comprehensive evaluation index based on hierarchical indicators is important for meteorological services. Taking into consideration the degree of agroclimatological resources and agrometeorological disasters, a general framework and comprehensive index for the assessment of agroclimatic patterns by year was proposed based on the climate suitability functions and agrometeorological disaster indices; a division was made according to percentiles. The proposed index was then applied to a case study in the Jianghan Plain, demonstrating the potential for a long-term climate change assessment and ranking of the patterns for each specific year. Results showed that the comprehensive index reflected the interannual variability of agroclimatic conditions, as