基于活动工期风险和资源约束风险的缓冲大小计算方法-控制与决策.PDFVIP

第31 卷 第8 期 控 制 与 决 策 2016 年 8 月 Vol. 31 No. 8 Control and Decision Aug. 2016 文章编号: 1001-0920 (2016) 08-1513-06 DOI: 10.13195/j.kzyjc.2015.0926 基于活动工期风险和资源约束风险的缓冲大小计算方法 1 1 2 胡雪君, 崔南方 , 赵 雁 (1. 华中科技大学管理学院，武汉430074 ；2. 中南财经政法大学工商管理学院，武汉430073) 摘 要: 提出一种不确定情况下考虑活动工期风险和多资源约束风险的缓冲大小计算方法. 首先, 运用贝叶斯网络 技术分析关键风险因素, 评估其造成的活动工期风险; 其次, 通过资源流网络方法衡量资源约束风险, 进而提出合理 的缓冲配置方法以构建稳定的关键链调度计划. 通过算例分析和比较研究, 验证了所提出方法兼具有效性和实用性, 能够在保证较高按时完工率的同时, 有效缩短项目工期并保持进度计划稳定. 关键词: 关键链缓冲管理；缓冲大小设置；工期风险；资源约束；贝叶斯网络 中图分类号: F224 文献标志码: A Buffer sizing method based on activity duration risk and resource constraint risk 1 1 2 HU Xue-jun , CUI Nan-fang , ZHAO Yan (1. School of Management，Huazhong University of Science and Technology ，Wuhan 430074 ，China ；2. School of Business Administration ，Zhongnan University of Economics and Law ，Wuhan 430073 ，China ．Correspondent ：HU Xue-jun, E-mail ：huxuejun0626@) Abstract: A buffer sizing method considering the activity duration risk as well as the multi-resource constraint risk under uncertainty is proposed. First of all, the key risk factors are identified and the activity duration risk is effectively assessed by using Bayesian networks. Then, the resource constraint risk is appropriately determined by using the resource flow networks. And a reasonable buffer sizing approach is developed for the construction of a stable critical chain scheduling plan. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method which is capable