交易员分析员培训资料系列历史数发据和分析2.docVIP

September 2008 September 29, 2008 HYPERLINK /american_economic_history/2008/09/today-in-financ.html Today in Financial History The TED Spread: Housing Prices: Stock Market: Unemployment: From Calculated Risk: HYPERLINK / Calculated Risk: MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2008 Cliff Diving by Calculated Risk Dow off 6%. SP 500 off 7%. NASDAQ off 7%. With the failure of the bailout in the House, the question is now what? There is the possibility of some arm twisting and another vote tomorrow. Another possibility is that the bill will be revised in some way to garner a few more votes Bailout Plan Fails in House by Calculated Risk Yes 205 No 228 ... Dow off 500 points. The vote failed House Vote Nears on Bailout Plan by Calculated Risk Here is the debate on C-SPAN. Voting now ... will take about 15 minutes (so about 1:45 PM ET) Fed to significantly expand the capacity to provide U.S. dollar liquidity by Calculated Risk From the Fed: In response to continued strains in short-term funding markets, central banks today are announcing further coordinated actions to expand significantly the capacity to provide U.S. dollar liquidity. Central banks will continue to work together closely and are prepared to take appropriate steps as needed to address funding pressures. Meanwhile the TED Spread from Bloomberg is at a record 3.48! Ouch Conventional open-market operations work on the liquidity premium--they either relax a cash-in-advance constraint keeping aggregate demand low, or relax a relatively-safe-investments-look-unprofitable animal spirits constraint keeing investment and thus aggregate demand low. For the past year the problem has not been that safe interest rates have been low--far from it. The problem has been that risky asset values have been low (partly because a lot of risky assets are backed by investments that werent fundamentally very profitable, and partly because risk premia are high because the supply of risky assets is great and the mobilized risk-bearing capacity of th