growth prospects in China and india外文电子书籍.PDFVIP

The European Journal of Comparative Economics Vol. 4, n. 1, pp. 65-89 ISSN 1722-4667 Growth Prospects in China and India Compared 1 Richard Herd and Sean Dougherty Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Abstract This paper compares the growth prospects of China and India through a growth accounting analysis. Consistent time series for capital stock and employment are constructed using available survey data, and recent revisions to the national accounts for both countries are incorporated. The results allow for a discussion of the sources of growth in both countries, and a consideration of each country’s rate of potential growth in light of the outlook for national savings, as demographic shifts occur in each country. JEL Classification: E2 0, O11, O47, P52 Keywords: Growth accounting; potential growth; capital measurement; demographics; China; India 1. Introduction China and India, as the fastest-growing of the ‘BRIC’ economies, occupy a special place in the imagination of observers in the OECD and elsewhere. Despite their low incomes, their sheer size combined with rapid growth means that they make a substantial and rapidly growing contribution to world output. The success or failure of each country to maintain their rapid growth into the future will have a tremendous impact not only on their own economies but on the world economy as a whole. Moreover, with populations of 1.3 and 1.1 billion, respectively, their rapid growth has the potential to raise living sta