rise of china and india外文电子书籍.PDFVIP

Draft for discussion and comment only 1 The rise of China and India and the commodity boom: economic and environmental implications for low-income countries 1 2 Ian Coxhead and Sisira Jayasuriya Abstract The rapid growth of China and, more recently, of India, is having major effects on every facet of the global economy, including the environment, and this influence is projected to continue to expand in the foreseeable future. The growth of these two ‘giants’ in the developing world has produced a massive surge in manufacturing and services exports as well as in imports of both intermediates and primary commodities. In manufactures, even as competitive pressures have sharpened in labor-intensive export sectors, new growth opportunities have emerged for complementary expansion. Benefiting from trade and investment liberalization, international production networks closely tied to FDI and multinational enterprises have thrived. They have enhanced intra-regional trade and intensified Asian regional integration. The other dramatic impact on global markets has been the current commodity price boom, a product of huge increase in demand for energy, minerals and other commodities. The commodity boom, too, has had particularly strong effects on resource-rich Asian economies. What are the implications for developing economies of the growth of these new ‘giants’ in the context of new patterns of production and trade? We provide a sketch of a trade-theoretic model that highlights key economic forces operating on resource-rich economies. We show analytically how the growth of the ‘giants’ generates adjustment pressures on either side of the factor-intensity spectrum of their own factor endowment range. We discuss how differences in relative factor endowments can produce different outcomes in the face of new c