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Cognition 119 (2011) 403–418
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Cognition
journal homepage: www.else /locate/COGNIT
The mental representation of causal conditional reasoning: Mental
models or causal models
Nilufa Ali a, Nick Chater b, Mike Oaksford c,⇑
a Department of Psychology, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge, UK
b Behavioural Sciences Group, Warwick Business School, Warwick University, Coventry, UK
c Department of Psychological Sciences, Birkbeck College, University of London, London, UK
a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t
Article history: In this paper, two experiments are reported investigating the nature of the cognitive rep-
Received 6 May 2010 resentations underlying causal conditional reasoning performance. The predictions of cau-
Revised 2 February 2011 sal and logical interpretations of the conditional diverge sharply when inferences involving
Accepted 4 February 2011
pairs of conditionals—such as if P1 then Q and if P2 then Q—are considered. From a causal
perspective, the causal direction of these conditionals is critical: are the Pi causes of Q; or
symptoms caused by Q. The rich variety of inference patterns can naturally be modelled
Keywords:
by Bayesian networks. A pair of causal conditionals where Q is an effect corresponds to a
Causal models
‘‘collider’’ structure where th
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