Prediction in Context O the Comparative Epistemic Merit of 预测语境对认知价值比较.pptVIP

Prediction in Context: On the Comparative Epistemic Merit of Predictive Success;1. Predictive Novelty vs. Coherence as Epistemic Merits ;Novel predictions anticipate surprising phenomena that go beyond the system of knowledge and tend to be inconsistent with it.  Thus predictive power and coherence with the background knowledge are conditions that tend to point in opposite directions. ;2. Prediction in Application-Oriented Research Endeavors;Biotechnology of the 1990s: the ability to anticipate the outcome of one’s inter-ventions is decoupled from any deeper understanding. Predictive stre