基于贝叶斯网络的资源型项目投资风险研究-管理科学与工程专业论文.docxVIP

Contents1 Contents 1 Introducfion ．．1 1．1．nle background ofthe subject and research significance 1 1．1．1 1f11e background ofthe subject 1 1．1．2 m research significance 1 1．2 11le research content and research goals ．2 1．2．1 The research content ．2 1．2．2 Research goals ． ．．． ．． ． ． ． ． ． ． ．． ． ． 3 1．3 The research ideas．． ． ．． ．． ． ． ． ． ．． ． ． ．．．． ．． ．．4 1．4 The innovation and defects 4 1．5 Innovation and deficiency ofthe paper ． ． ．． ．．．． ． ． ． ．．． ．4 2 Theoretical basis and research review． ． ． ． ．．． ．． ． ． ． ．．．．． ． ．．．． ．6 2．1 In仃oducfion to the theory ofrisk management 6 2．1．1 Generation and definJ【tion ofrisk 6 2．1．2 Content and process ofrisk management 一7 2．1．3 IUSk identification and analysis ofrelated theories 一8 2．2 Project investment risk management related research 10 2．3 Resources project investment research were reviewed ．12 2．3．1 Resource description ofproject 12 2．3．2 Resources project investment research status 1 3 2．4 Bayesian network theory and research were reviewed 一14 2．4．1 Bayesian theory 14 2．4．2 Bayesian networks． ． ． ．． ． ． ．． ． ． ． ． ． ．．．． ．．．．．14 3 Resources project investment risk factors identification and analysis．．．．．．．．．．．．．．1 7 3．1 Resources project investment risk factors identification method and the process ．． ． ． ． ． ．． ． ． ． ． ．． ． ． ． ．． ． ． ． ． ．． ． ． ．．．．1 7 3．2 Resources project investment risk questionnaire design and survey analysis．1 9 3．3 Statistical analysis ofresources project investment risk identification ．19 3．3．1 Reliability test ．． ．．． ．． ． ． ． ．． ． ． ． ．． ． ． ．．19 ：；．：；．2 Validity test。．． ． ． ． ． ． ． ．． 。． ． ． ． ．． ．． ．． 22 3．4 Determine the resources project investment risk factors 。25 3．4．1 IUsk factors for the standardization ofdata 25 3．4．2 Screening resources project investment risk factors 一25 III 万方数据 4 4 Based on Bayesian network resources project investment risk analysis ”27 4．1 Resources project investment risk Bayesian networks for the