京津冀夏季雷达定量降水估测的误差统计及定量气候校准-气象学报.PDFVIP

doi:10.11676/qxxb2019.022 气象学报 京津冀夏季雷达定量降水估测的误差统计及定量气候校准 1 宋林烨 陈明轩 程丛兰 高峰 陈敏 SONG Linye CHEN Mingxuan CHENG Conglan GAO Feng CHEN Min 中国气象局北京城市气象研究所，北京，100089 Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100089, China 2018-04-04 收稿，2018-10-12 改回. 宋林烨，陈明轩，程丛兰，高峰，陈敏.2019.京津冀夏季雷达定量降水估测的误差统计及定 量气候校准.气象学报，77 （待刊）： Song Linye, Chen Minxuan, Cheng Conglan, Gao feng, Chen Min. 2019. Characteristics of summer QPE error and a climatological correction method over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 77(in press)(in Chinese) Abstract: Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) is a key component of short-term and nowcasting, which plays an important role in many aspects such as Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), heavy precipitation warning, urban waterlog, geological mountain torrent disaster, and fine weather service. In this paper, spatial distribution characteristics of radar QPE over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is analyzed using the radar QPE data and automatic weather station 1h precipitation data during summer for period of 2011-2016. Specifically, a new kind of climatological correction algorithm is proposed. Results show that the radar QPE can well reflect the northeast to southwest distribution of observed total rainfall. However, the radar QPE is under-estimated over the northwest, the northeast and southwest mountain areas, and over-estimated over the piedmont zone of the northeast mountain area. Besides, false precipitation estimation is found over the northwest region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Precipitation over the Beijing city estimated by radar is the closest to observation. Then, the new p