我国电信业发展的预测分析..doc

PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT II 我国电信业发展的预测分析 摘　要 电信业在国民经济中的地位是不言而喻的.所以我国电信业的发展已是大势所趋.我国电信业自改革开放以来获得了长足的发展，但也有许多不足之处，所以本文主要通过目前我国电信业的现状及发展之路，及相关指标在国际上的比较对我国电信业的的发展提出相应的意见包括制度的创新、体制的改革.第一步，通过已有资料及对我国电信发展史的回顾对我国电信业结构做简单的分析，第二步，通过灰色统计预测法构建GM（1，1）模型，从而进行预测.通过对目前现状的了解以及电信业综合竞争力的国际比较找出我国电信业的优势与劣势最后根据分析结果提出相应的建议. 关键词：电信业 改革 竞争力 预测 Forecast Analysis of the Development of China’s Telecommunication Industry Directed by Instructor Abstract As the telecommunication industry is crucial in national economy, the growing trend of telecommunication industry is irreversible. Since the reform and opening up, the telecommunication industry has obtained great development, but it also has many deficiencies. Therefore, this thesis will give advice to the system of the telecommunication industry through the current status and the contrast of international relevant index. Firstly, this thesis will analyze the current structure of the telecommunication industry in China with descriptive statistical method. Secondly， this thesis will construct GM(1,1) model with gray statistical prediction method. Through these comprehensive analysis, this thesis will find out the advantages and disadvantages of the telecommunication industry in China. Finally, this thesis will put forward the corresponding suggestion according to the results of analysis. KEY WORDS：Telecommunications industry Reform Competitiveness Forecast 目 录 TOC \o 1-3 \h \z \u HYPERLINK \l _Toc448666185 摘　要 PAGEREF _Toc448666185 \h I HYPERLINK \l _Toc448666186 英文摘要 PAGEREF _Toc448666186 \h II HYPERLINK \l _Toc448666188 前　言 PAGEREF _Toc448666188 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc448666189 1 目前电信业的发展现状和趋势 PAGEREF _Toc448666189 \h 2 HYPERLINK \l _Toc448666190 1.1我国电信业的发展概况 PAGEREF _Toc448666190 \h 2 HYPERLINK \l _Toc448666191 1.2国际电信业的发展趋势 PAGEREF _Toc448666191 \h 3 HYPERLINK \l _Toc448666192 2 电信业综合竞争力的国际比较 PAGEREF _Toc448666192 \h 3 HYPERLINK \l _Toc448666193 2.1 我国电信业综合竞争力的国际比较. PAGEREF