我国城镇人均医疗费用实证分析—计量经济学.doc

PAGE 数据处理与模型分析期末论文 影响城镇居民人均医疗保健费用支出因素 的实证分析 PAGE I 摘要 近年来，随着人民生活水平的提高，人民越来越关注个人医疗保健问题。医疗卫生消费已经成为居民生活消费的重要组成部分，医疗卫生消费的水平、特点是一个地区一个国家居民生活水平和健康水平的重要反应。本文采用时间序列数据，通过建立计量模型，对中国近20年以来城镇人均医疗保健支出费用进行分析。分析城镇人均医疗保健支出与城镇人均可支配收入、政府卫生支出、CPI及卫生人员数的关系。 关键字：人均医疗保健支出；政府卫生支出；CPI；卫生人员数； Abstract In recent years, with the improvement of peoples living standards, people are increasingly concerned about the personal health care issues. Residents living consumption has become an important part of health care consumption, the level of health care consumption, important reaction is characterized by a region of a country living standards and health. In this paper, the time series data analysis through the establishment of the econometric model, the urban per capita healthcare expenditures in China for the past 20 years since. Analysis of urban per capita health care spending and the urban per capita disposable income, government spending on health, CPI and the relationship between the number of health personnel. Key words：Per capita health care spending; Government expenditure on health;CPI; The number of health workers 目录 TOC \o 1-3 \h \z \u HYPERLINK \l _Toc344369079 摘要 PAGEREF _Toc344369079 \h I HYPERLINK \l _Toc344369080 引言 PAGEREF _Toc344369080 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc344369081 一、人均医疗保健支出与人均可支配收入的关联度双变量分析 PAGEREF _Toc344369081 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc344369082 二、人均医疗保健支出与多解释变量关联度分析 PAGEREF _Toc344369082 \h 4 HYPERLINK \l _Toc344369083 三、模型设定误差分析 PAGEREF _Toc344369083 \h 7 HYPERLINK \l _Toc344369084 四、模型结构稳定性检验 PAGEREF _Toc344369084 \h 8 HYPERLINK \l _Toc344369085 五、模型的自相关诊断及补救 PAGEREF _Toc344369085 \h 12 HYPERLINK \l _Toc344369086 1.自相关的诊断 PAGEREF _Toc344369086 \h 12 HYPERLINK \l _Toc344369087 1.1图示法 PAGEREF _Toc344369087 \h 12 HYPERLINK \l _Toc344369088 1.2杜宾－瓦尔逊检验 PAGEREF _Toc344369088 \h 13 HYPERLINK \l _Toc344369089 1.3游程检验 PAGEREF _Toc344369089 \h 13 HYPERLINK \l _Toc344369090 六、模型的多重共线性诊断及补救 PAGEREF _Toc344369090 \h 14 HYPERLINK \l _Toc344369091 1.多重