基于风险理论的复杂电力系统脆弱性评价-电网技术.PDF

29 卷 4 期 电 网 技 术 Vol.29 No.4 2005 年2 月 Power System Technology Feb. 2005 文章编号：1000-3673 （2005 ）04-0012-06 中图分类号：TM712 文献标识码：A 学科代码：470 4054 基于风险理论的复杂电力系统脆弱性评估 陈为化，江全元，曹一家，韩祯祥 （浙江大学电气工程学院，浙江省 杭州市 310027 ） RISK-BASED VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT IN COMPLEX POWER SYSTEMS CHEN Wei-hua ，JIANG Quan-yuan，CAO Yi-jia ，HAN Zhen-xiang （College of Electrical Engineering，Zheji ang University，Hangzhou 310027 ，Zheji ang Province，China ） ABSTRACT: Based on probability theory the risk theory was 性难题。传统的确定性电力系统安全评估方法有 applied to the vulnerability assessment of power system. Here, [1,2] [3] [4] 灵敏度分析方法 、数值仿真方法 、直接法 the power system was defined as a vulnerable system and a set 等，这些方法难以考虑电力系统的复杂性和随机 of risk indices to assess the power system vulnerability and 性，难以提供电网安全健康状态的实时、定量和直 corresponding algorithm were built, thus the defects of 观的诊断信息，无法建立有效的控制和决策支持系 traditional determinsistic security assessment method, which 统，无法满足电力市场的要求，造成电力资源的浪 cannot satisfy the requirement of electricity market and complicated power grid, could be overcome. On this basis, a 费。 此，必须将传统电力系统安全性的概念加以 risk theory and risk indices based power system vulnerability 拓展，并采用相应的新型评估方法。最近，一些研 assessment software was developed. Taking the New England 究人员提出了电力系统脆弱性（Vulnerability）的概 test system for example, the effectiveness and advanced 念，作为电力系统安全性概念的拓展。如文献[5] property of the presented method were proved. 提出了从全局脆弱性的角度来评估电力系统安全 KEY WORDS: Power system；Risk indices ；Vulnerability 稳定性的新思路，文献[6-10]提出了构建基于脆弱 assessment ；Undervol