基于多元线性回归模型在中国奢侈品消费情况预测的实践应用.pdfVIP

2011年11月 网络与信息工程 2013.23 第11期 基于多元线性回归模型在中国奢侈品消费情况预测的应用 张海宁 （天津大学管理与经济学部,天津,300072） 摘要：随着中国奢侈品消费的高速增长，当前中国奢侈品市场已逐渐成为各国际名牌的必争之地，满足市场需求必须以奢侈 品消费的研究为前提 . 通过研究影响奢侈品消费的因素，GDP、居民消费水平、国内游客旅游总花费、各项税收 . 根据样本数 据，建立多元线性回归预测模型，对模型的预测结果进行检验，结果表明模型的拟合度、显著性均符合要求，说明通过该模型准 确的预测了中国奢侈品消费的状况。 摘要： 关键词 ：奢侈品消费；需求预测；多元线性回归 中图分类号：O213 文献标志码：A Demand Forecast of the Chinese Luxury Consumption Based on the Multiple Linear Regression Analysis 关键词： Zhang Haining 中图分类号: TE8 (Faculty of Management and Economics，Tianjin University，Tianjin 300072，China) Abstract ： With the rapid growth of Chinese luxury consumption，the current Chinese luxury goods market has gradually become the battleground of international brands.The meeting of the market demand must be based on the forecast.This paper studies the factors that influence consumer of luxury goods,GDP,the level of consumption,total tourism spending domestic tourists and the tax.Based on the sample data,predictive method of multivariate linear regression model was discussed.The results showed that the model fitting degree and significance are in line with the requirements,indicating this model has the accurate prospect in the Chinese luxury consumption forecast. Keywords ： Luxury consumption；Demand forecast；Multiple linear regression