天津突发事故条件下大气污染的应急模拟-中国环境科学.PDFVIP

中国环境科学 2009,29(9) ：919~923 China Environmental Science 天津市突发事故条件下大气污染的应急模拟 韩素芹 1,2,蔡旭晖 3*,李培彦 2,解以扬 2 ,王雪莲 2 (1.南开大学信息技术科学学院,天津 300071 ；2.天津市气象 科学研究所,天津 300074 ；3.北京大学环境科学系,北京 100871) 摘要：基于数值天气预报模式和自动气象站观测资料,采用随机游走粒子-烟团模式对天津市突发事故条件进行应急示踪模拟试验.结果表 明,模式能在 10min 内给出计算结果,并能较好地模拟大气突发事故的大气扩散过程,粒子的散布和积分浓度的分布均能反映出大气突发事 故污染物扩散路径和影响范围的变化,可以作为事故应急决策系统的大气扩散模块,为早期应急和后果评价提供更接近实际的信息. 关键词：事故；应急；大气污染；随机游走粒子-烟团模式；天津 中图分类号：X511 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2009)09-0919-05 Numerical simulation of emergency response to atmospheric pollution accident in Tianjin. HAN Su-qin1,2, CAI 3* 2 2 2 Xu-hui , LI Pei-yan , XIE Yi-yang , WANG Xue-lian (1.College of Information Technical Science, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China ；2.Tianjin Meteorology Institute, Tianjin 300074, China ；3.Deapartment of Environment Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China). China Environmental Science, 2009,29(9)：919~923 Abstract ：Based on the numerical weather prediction model and automatic weather station data, random-walk particle-puff model was used to simulate the emergency response to atmospheric accident. The model for atmospheric diffusion could simulate the atmospheric diffusion in case of emergency accident occurred in 10min, both distribution of the particle and concentration calculated by the model could describe the variation of the diffusion route and affected area. Random walk model, as atmospheric diffusion module of the emergency accident decision support system, could provide more actual information for early emergency and consequence assessment. Key words ：accident ；emergency ；atmospheric pollution ；random-walk particle-puff model ；Tianjin 突发性大气污染事故(核污染、有毒有害气 式只适用于模拟中小尺度范围内传输和扩散条 体泄漏、生化恐怖袭击)是一种威胁人类安全和 件长期不变的扩散 ,对于城市下垫面地理信息 健康、破坏生态环境、危害性大的污染事故,给