基于投影寻踪技术的水资源承载力评价方法分析-土壤学专业论文.docxVIP

and established Projection Pursuit Grade Evaluation Model, and applied it to the empirical research of four municipalities. Genetic algorithm was used to solve the model and get the best projection vector, then according to the projection characteristic value of each index, we determined the ‘advantage index’ and ‘short board index’ influencing water resources carrying capacity from city to city. The evaluation results were comprehensively analyzed, and measures to improve water resources carrying capacity were put forward from opening source, structural adjustment, technology, management, ecological security and so on. The evaluation results show that: the water resources carrying capacity of the four municipalities directly under the central government in the year of 2012 were all belong to the third level, while Shanghai was close to the second level, Tianjin was close to the fourth level, water resources carrying capacity in the order of descending was followed ShanghaiChongqingBeijingTianjin. Compared with other comprehensive evaluation methods, this method has higher stability and simplicity, and can avoid the subjectivity and uncertainty in determining index weight. At the same time, it can be used to screening index and optimize index system, the evaluation results have higher precision and discrimination, can be widely used in various evaluation problem. KEY WORDS：water resource carrying capacity; index system; projection pursuit grade evaluation model; optimal projection vector i i 目 录 第一章 绪论1 1.1 研究背景及意义1 1.1.1 研究背景1 1.1.2 研究意义2 1.2 国内外研究现状2 1.2.1 水资源承载力评价指标体系的研究进展 2 1.2.2 水资源承载力评价方法的研究进展 3 1.2.3 存在问题4 1.3 研究内容及技术路线5 1.3.1 研究内容5 1.3.2 技术路线6 第二章 水资源承载力评价的理论基础 7 2.1 构建水资源承载力评价指标体系的理论基础 7 2.1.1 水资源承载力的定义和内涵 7 2.1.2 可持续发展理论8 2.1.3 水资源优化配置理论9 2.2 水资源承载力评价方法的理论基础 9 2.2.1 投影寻踪技术概述9 2.2.2 投影寻踪聚类模型的降维思路11 2.2.3 投影寻踪应用于水资源承载力评价的适用性分析 11 2.2.4 遗传算法简介12 第三章 水资源承载力